SPENCER Thomas, Nicolas Berghmans and Oliver Sartor

This paper addresses the following questions: Under plausible scenarios for the development of the demand/supply balance, load factors, and generation margins, what is the profitability of Chinese coal-fired power plants and the scale of potential asset stranding? What policies could be deployed to limit the political economy frictions of power sector transition in China? What would be the potential economic retirement schedule of Chinese coal-fired power plants, given the modelled investment costs, load factors, and margins? Put more simply, how quickly could China get out of coal power?

http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Coal-transitions-in-China-s-power-sector-A-plant-level-assessment-of-stranded-assets-and-retirement-pathways